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  3. What Went Wrong? Analyzing the Aces' Failed Three-Peat Attempt

What Went Wrong? Analyzing the Aces' Failed Three-Peat Attempt

ByQueen Ballers Staff| October 5, 2024If you buy something from a link on our site, Queen Ballers Club may earn a commission.
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The Las Vegas Aces entered the 2024 season as heavy favorites to three-peat and cement their place as one of the WNBA's greatest dynasties. They had the reigning MVP in A'ja Wilson, one of the league's best coaches in Becky Hammon, and a roster filled with championship experience. Vegas sportsbooks had them as odds-on favorites before the season even began.

Instead, their championship reign ended in a stunning semifinal defeat to the Minnesota Lynx. Despite A'ja Wilson's historic individual season—breaking the single-season scoring record and winning her third MVP—the Aces struggled with depth, defensive consistency, and the physical toll of three straight deep playoff runs. Chelsea Gray's injury issues and Kelsey Plum's playoff struggles left too much on Wilson's shoulders. The Liberty and Lynx both exposed Las Vegas' vulnerability to pick-and-roll coverage and transition defense, exploiting cracks that weren't visible during their championship runs.

The Weight of Expectations

From day one of training camp, the Aces carried the burden of history. A three-peat would place them in rarefied air, joining the Houston Comets as the only WNBA franchises to win three consecutive championships. The pressure to achieve that goal was immense, spoken about in every press conference and hanging over every regular-season game.

The Aces finished the regular season 27-13, a solid record but down from their championship years. More concerning than the win total were the warning signs: defensive lapses against elite offenses, struggles closing out close games, and an over-reliance on Wilson to carry the offensive load. These issues seemed manageable during the regular season but proved fatal in the playoffs.

The Depth Problem

Championship runs take a toll, and the Aces paid the price for three straight years of playing deep into the playoffs. Key role players who thrived in 2022 and 2023 showed signs of wear and declining production:

When teams loaded up on Wilson with double and triple teams, the Aces' supporting cast couldn't consistently make them pay. Three-point shooting, a strength in previous years, became inconsistent at crucial moments. The lack of a reliable fourth scoring option allowed opponents to focus their defensive attention on the big three.

Chelsea Gray's Injury Woes

Perhaps no single factor impacted the Aces' season more than Chelsea Gray's health issues. The Finals MVP from their 2023 championship dealt with foot and leg injuries throughout the season, missing 18 games and playing at less than 100% in many others.

When healthy, Gray is the engine that makes the Aces' offense flow. Her ability to control pace, make plays in pick-and-roll situations, and hit clutch shots in crunch time is irreplaceable. Without her at full strength, the offense became more predictable and easier to defend.

We knew coming in that staying healthy was going to be the challenge. Three straight years of deep playoff runs takes a toll. We just couldn't overcome the injuries and the depth issues when it mattered most.

In the semifinal series against Minnesota, Gray averaged just 9.8 points on 32.1% shooting. She couldn't create advantages off the dribble or finish through contact like she had in previous playoff runs. The Lynx targeted her defensively, forcing switches and attacking her in isolation. Her diminished effectiveness exposed the Aces' lack of secondary playmaking.

Kelsey Plum's Playoff Struggles

Kelsey Plum's regular season was solid if unspectacular—15.8 points per game on respectable efficiency. But when the playoffs arrived, her production cratered at the worst possible time. Against the Lynx, Plum shot just 29.4% from the field and 22.7% from three-point range, failing to provide the secondary scoring punch the Aces desperately needed.

Minnesota's defensive game plan was simple: load up on Wilson, switch everything on the perimeter to limit Gray's pick-and-roll effectiveness, and dare Plum to beat them. She couldn't. Her shot selection became forced, her decision-making deteriorated under pressure, and her defensive efforts were inconsistent.

Plum's struggles weren't entirely her fault—the Lynx executed their defensive scheme perfectly, and the lack of offensive flow made it difficult for any perimeter player to find rhythm. But championship teams need their third option to step up when defenses focus on the stars. Plum couldn't deliver when it mattered most.

Defensive Decline

The Aces' defense, once their calling card, showed troubling signs throughout the season. Their defensive rating during the regular season was 104.8, decent but not elite, and ranked just 5th in the league. In the playoffs, it deteriorated further to 108.2 as opponents exploited specific weaknesses:

  1. Pick-and-roll coverage: Teams like Minnesota ran horns sets and Spain pick-and-rolls that created confusion and resulted in open shots
  2. Transition defense: The Aces struggled getting back after missed shots, allowing easy baskets in the open court
  3. Three-point defense: Opponents shot 37.8% from three against Vegas in the playoffs, well above league average
  4. Defensive rebounding: The Aces were out-rebounded by the Lynx 38.2 to 32.8 per game in the semis

Becky Hammon tried various adjustments—switching schemes, zone looks, trapping ball handlers—but nothing could mask the defensive limitations. The Aces' once-feared defense had become merely average, and in the playoffs, average isn't good enough.

The Semifinal Series Breakdown

The Lynx series exposed all of the Aces' vulnerabilities simultaneously. Minnesota's defensive scheme neutralized Las Vegas' offensive strengths while their offensive execution found every crack in the Aces' defensive armor. Napheesa Collier dominated both ends of the floor, outplaying Wilson in their matchup and leading the Lynx to a 3-1 series victory.

Key moments that defined the series:

The Aces looked tired, frustrated, and out of answers. The three-peat burden had finally broken them.

What Went Wrong: A Summary

Multiple factors combined to end the Aces' championship reign:

The Offseason Ahead

This crucial offseason will define the Aces' immediate future. The core of Wilson, Gray, Plum, and Young remains elite, but the supporting cast needs significant upgrades. The front office must address several questions:

The Aces have shown they can retool and remain competitive. Their front office is one of the league's best, and Becky Hammon's coaching gives them an advantage. But the window for this specific core might be narrowing. Gray is 32, and Wilson can't carry the burden alone indefinitely.

Lessons Learned

The Aces' failed three-peat attempt offers valuable lessons about sustaining championship success:

  1. Depth matters: You can't run the same core into the ground year after year without reinforcements
  2. Health is crucial: Championship teams need their stars healthy when it matters most
  3. Defense wins championships: When your defensive identity slips, everything becomes harder
  4. Adjustments are necessary: What worked in previous years won't necessarily work again
  5. Rest and recovery: The physical and mental toll of championship runs is real and must be managed

Looking Ahead

Despite the disappointing end, the Aces remain one of the WNBA's premier franchises. They have the best player in the world in A'ja Wilson, an elite coach in Becky Hammon, and a front office committed to winning. The question is whether this core can bounce back or if changes are needed.

The Liberty's championship and the Lynx's resurgence have shifted the power dynamics in the WNBA. The Aces are no longer the overwhelming favorites, and they'll have to fight their way back to the top. That might be exactly what they need—a chance to prove they can still win without the burden of dynastic expectations.

Championships are hard to win, and dynasties are even harder to build. The Aces' two titles and three straight Finals appearances (counting 2023) represent sustained excellence that should be celebrated. But in sports, you're only as good as your last game, and the Aces' last game was a semifinal defeat.

How they respond to this adversity will define their legacy. Champions find a way to bounce back. We'll soon find out if the Aces still have what it takes to reclaim their throne.

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